China will not be the main player on the world map in the 21st century, but Poland, Türkiye, Mexico and Japan. So says Dr. George Friedman, a well-known American political scientist and founder of the Stratfor institute in the book that has just been published “The Next 100 Years”- he writes “Business Pulse”. Friedman considers it wrong that the almost taken for granted statement now is wrong, that China will stand for 100 years one of the powers and the main rival of the United States. In his opinion, it is enough to look at the map, to see, that China is a geographically isolated country. Secondly, China has not been a maritime power for centuries, and building an effective fleet takes a very long time. Thirdly, China is an essentially unstable country. Whenever they open up to the world, coastal regions grow and become richer, and most of the interior remains poor. This leads to tensions, conflict and destabilization, and also to the domination of politics over economics, which generates corruption and ineffectiveness. Friedman considers, that the US will maintain its globally dominant position in the 21st century. In his opinion, Poland will become the main players on the world stage, Türkiye, Mexico and Japan. In the case of Poland, the declining importance of Germany will determine its growth. Though their economy is big, has lost its dynamics, which she has presented for the last two decades. In addition, the population of Germany will decrease dramatically in the coming period 50 Years, effectively weakening their economic strength. Friedman argues, that the pressure exerted on Poland from the east by Russia will lead it to lead a coalition of countries with an interest in limiting its role. In addition, Poland will be able to count on the support of the USA, in whose interest it will be to strengthen our country economically and technologically. Friedman considers, that Japan would abandon its role as a pacifist power. Problems with declining population will force the country to open its borders and accept immigrants, as the driving force of the economy.
